AI Forecasting Marks a Cautious Turn for Vertical Farming

As vertical farming retrenches, early AI forecasting tools offer a tentative path toward steadier planning and reduced risk

30 Jan 2026

For a decade vertical farming promised abundance from warehouses. What it delivered was volatility. Now, as the sector trims its ambitions, artificial intelligence is being asked to do something modest: improve the accuracy of forecasts just before harvest.

New experimental work suggests AI models can sharpen yield estimates late in the growing cycle. That may sound small. It arrives at an awkward moment. Energy bills are high, margins thin and investors impatient. Many farms still plan by instinct and spreadsheets. Better forecasting would not banish uncertainty, but it could reduce costly shocks.

This recalibration coincides with deeper change. Over the past year asset sales, leadership changes and pared-back expansion have become common. The land grab is over. Cost control has begun. AI-led planning is being judged not as a growth engine but as a way to match output to real demand rather than optimistic projections.

The industry’s best-known names, AeroFarms, Plenty and Bowery Farming, illustrate the challenge. None offers a simple success story. Scaling indoor agriculture has proved harder and costlier than hoped. Their recent emphasis on tighter operations, automation and data discipline reflects a broader attempt to reassure investors who now prize predictability over bravado.

For growers, more reliable forecasts could flag underperformance earlier, allowing adjustments to lighting, plant density or harvest timing. Buyers might gain steadier supply and fewer broken contracts. Consumers could see more consistent availability and less waste if the systems mature. These would be incremental gains, not a revolution.

The obstacles are substantial. AI depends on clean, consistent data, which many farms are still assembling. Software is costly. Questions linger over data ownership and dependence on vendors. And forecasting cannot fix the basic economics of power-hungry buildings.

Still, the mood has shifted. Vertical farming remains complex and capital-intensive. Yet the return of AI, stripped of grand claims, hints at a more grounded future. If the technology helps farms plan better rather than dream bigger, it may finally earn its keep.